Wayback Wednesday: When Does LeBron James Retire in NBA Live 2004?

This is Wayback Wednesday, your midweek blast from the past! From retrospectives of basketball games and their interesting features, to republished articles and looking at NBA history through the lens of the virtual hardwood, Wednesdays at the NLSC are for going back in time. This week, I’m dusting off NBA Live 2004 to see when LeBron James will retire in its Dynasty mode.

As of writing, it seems a safe guess to say that LeBron James will likely play at least one more season. He has an opportunity to set a new record by playing in his 23rd campaign, not to mention add to his career statistics and possibly contend for another championship. It would also give him an opportunity to further mentor his son Bronny and likely play some more minutes side-by-side with him, while also enjoying a full retirement tour. And of course, if by some chance he does decide that the 2025 season was his last, he’s obviously had a long and extremely successful career.

His longevity, while certainly impressive, isn’t altogether surprising. Not only are we seeing more players stick around for 16+ seasons, but LeBron is obviously a superb athlete, and has remained healthy throughout his career. As with other greats who came straight out of high school, it was commonly speculated that LeBron would go on to have a long career, but what did contemporary video games predict? With Dynasty mode in NBA Live 2004 consisting of 25 seasons, the game may still be able to correctly predict when LeBron will retire! Let’s take a look back…way back…

The easiest way to keep track of LeBron’s career in NBA Live 2004 is to use the Cleveland Cavaliers in Dynasty mode. There’s always the danger that he’ll be lost to free agency, but I figured it’d be fun to see if I could retain him, and ultimately bring him back at some point if he does take his talents to South Beach or elsewhere. I also thought it’d be fun to replicate some of the Cavs’ real moves, barring the opportunity to do better. And so, the journey begins in the 2004 season, with LeBron at point guard and rated 69 Overall, due to NBA Live 2004 switching to a 0-99 ratings scale in-game. After setting the opening night lineup, I was ready to begin the simulation.

As in real life, “my” Cavaliers dropped their 2004 season opener to the Sacramento Kings, albeit by a score of 96-73 rather than 106-92. The real LeBron had 25 points, six rebounds, nine assists, and four steals in his NBA debut. His virtual counterpart in this simulation opened his career with a more modest 10 points, but had eight boards and four assists. The 2004 Cavaliers went 3-7 in their first ten games, while my Cavs went 2-8. LeBron’s undercooked ratings weren’t allowing him put up big numbers, but I anticipated they’d get better. I hit my first snag when the Boston Celtics declined the December 15th trade. It’s a good example of how reality can be unrealistic in games!

The deal went through with just Ricky Davis and Chris Mihm being swapped for Tony Battie and Eric Williams. I figured that was close enough! I also switched LeBron’s position from point guard to shooting guard, where he ended up playing most of his rookie season. Amusingly, while simulating through to January 21st to make the Darius Miles trade, the Indiana Pacers offered me Reggie Miller for Tony Battie! As tempting as it was to mix things up with this alternate history, I declined. Incredibly, the CPU Portland Trail Blazers did accept my 1-for-2 offer of Miles for Jeff McInnis and Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje, despite supposedly lacking any interest.

After encountering a couple of simulated injuries – including a broken foot for LeBron – I decided to re-load and switch them off. Even with a healthy squad, a slow start saw these virtual 2004 Cavaliers go 24-58; barely better than the year before. LeBron was still named Rookie of the Year, averaging 16.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 4 apg. The stacked Los Angeles Lakers featuring Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, and Gary Payton, defeated the Sacramento Kings (who signed Shawn Kemp) to advance to the NBA Finals, where they lost in six games. However, it wasn’t to the Detroit Pistons, but an underdog Philadelphia 76ers team and Allen Iverson, getting revenge for 2001.

Retirees in the 2004 offseason included Reggie Miller – who ended up being traded to the Washington Wizards – as well as Karl Malone, Horace Grant, Tim Hardaway, Avery Johnson, Charles Oakley, and Kevin Willis. My Cavaliers won the lottery for the second year in a row, and while it certainly would’ve been funny to select the fictional equivalent of Luke Jackson, I figured I should run the team competently! I chose a centre named Morris Ward: the projected #1 pick and serendipitous stand-in for Dwight Howard. In the second round, I drafted power forward Gerald Lawson to basically be Anderson Varajeo, in case the Magic didn’t have a rookie big to trade for.

Funnily enough, Carlos Boozer refused to re-sign! Scott Williams was the only real signing I could make in the 2004 offseason, and so it was tempting to pick up Latrell Sprewell or Nick Van Exel, since the simulation was already beginning to diverge from reality. Unfortunately, due to a common bug in NBA Live 2004’s Dynasty, they remained unsigned, as did Kurt Thomas and Kenyon Martin. I wasn’t able to make the trade of Kevin Ollie for Eric Snow without Kedrick Brown, and the Magic weren’t about to give up the higher-rated Drew Gooden for Tony Battie, either. With that in mind, I decided to sign Mo Williams and Mikki Moore, and bring back Eric Williams.

I also switched LeBron, now 72 Overall, to small forward. My revamped roster went 41-41 and made the Playoffs, compared to the real 2005 Cavs who went 42-40 and just missed the postseason. Interestingly, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Morris Ward were the stars, averaging 21.4 ppg and 20.9 ppg respectively. LeBron’s pedestrian 12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 3.8 apg didn’t fill me with confidence that he’d enjoy an all-time great career in this simulation, even if it was still a long one. We ended up blowing a 2-0 lead to Boston, who in turn fell to eventual Eastern Conference Champion Toronto. The Raptors were then swept by the Kings, as Chris Webber finally got his ring.

Scottie Pippen, Mark Jackson, Anthony Mason, Dikembe Mutombo, Bruce Bowen, and Derrick Coleman were among the notable retirees in 2005. I still had plenty of cap room after re-signing Ilgauskas and Mo Williams and drafting two rookies, and so I was actually able to sign Larry Hughes and Donyell Marshall. Unfortunately the moves didn’t pay off and LeBron remained the third man behind Ilgauskas and Ward as the Cavs went 36-46. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs won their third title a year late, defeating the Wizards in five games. With no restricted free agency, I began to wonder if I’d actually wind up losing LeBron James at the end of his rookie contract.

It was also becoming increasingly difficult to copy moves the real Cavaliers had made, though they admittedly weren’t doing a whole lot of wheeling and dealing during LeBron’s early years. After going 39-43 and missing the Playoffs in 2007 – a postseason that saw Shaq, Kobe, and the Lakers sweep the Chicago Bulls in the NBA Finals – I was able to lock down LeBron for seven years, delaying any Decision until 2014. However, with him playing like a borderline All-Star at best, the team showed little improvement. We went 35-47 in 2008, with the Lakers repeating as champs as they swept the Celtics (who didn’t get Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in this reality).

2009 started off promisingly after drafting a highly-touted point guard named Tanner Haydorn, but a four-game slide at the end of the regular season resulted in a 41-41 finish. It was good enough for the seventh seed and a first round loss to Detroit, as the Celtics won a rematch with the Lakers. Big contracts for LeBron and Z (as well as the simplified salary cap) made it tough to make a splash in free agency, and 2010 turned out to be another rough season for us as we went 31-51. Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets beat the Bulls in seven games to take home the Larry O’Brien trophy, in turn giving LeBron’s Class of 2003 rival a ring and Finals MVP honours before The King.

Obviously there was no Decision for LeBron in 2010 in this reality, and Chris Bosh – who had developed into an 84 Overall by that point – also stayed put. Meanwhile, not only did Dwyane Wade miss out on playing with Shaq since he continued to team with Kobe in LA, but Flash was a 55 Overall benchwarmer after seven seasons. Melo had become the true star of the 2003 Draft, and content in Denver after winning a title. With LeBron finally becoming the first option in 2011, my Cavaliers struggled to a 26-56 record, fourth-worst in the league. It was at this point that I thought about switching off GM evaluation, fearing that I might soon be fired for a lack of success!

Pau Gasol powered the Memphis Grizzlies to the 2011 championship, defeating the New Orleans Hornets – still in the East without the realignment that occurred in 2004 – in five games. Grant Hill and Jason Kidd retired in 2011; a couple of years earlier than in real life, but still simultaneously. Fictional players were beginning to take over the league, which I hoped would be to my advantage. Winning the top pick in 2011 also helped, as it yielded a 78 Overall shooting guard named Victor Holton. With the entire starting five averaging double digits in scoring led by LeBron’s 17.7, we went 42-40 for another seventh seed and first round exit, this time to the Wizards in five.

The Bucks won it all, led by Tim Duncan; yes, of all the Hall of Famers to switch teams in this simulation, Duncan was the one to do so, and with great results! Big Z finally called it a day, a year later than in real life. Steve Nash also retired in 2012, having never gone back to Phoenix or become an MVP. A rocky second half to the 2013 season derailed what was shaping up to be a decent campaign, resulting in a 39-43 record and another trip the lottery, while the Raptors swept the Clippers to win the championship. Chris Bosh was the Finals MVP, joining Melo in leapfrogging LeBron to establish himself as one of the two biggest stars to come out of the Class of 2003.

Entering the 2014 season, it was impossible not to feel the pressure to break through and at least become competitive. If Tim Duncan could move on despite the Spurs winning in 2006 and remaining in contention, there was certainly no guarantee that I’d be able to keep LeBron! Of course, I’d still be able to keep tabs on LeBron wherever he went, and hopefully be informed when he opts to retire, but suffice it to say that the Cavs would be more interesting to helm if he stuck around. Rookie big man Harvey Sloan helped lift us to the Playoffs – this time as the sixth seed – where the defending champions ousted us in six games. The Bucks won again, led by…Kwame Brown!

Brown was apparently a worthy replacement for Tim Duncan, who along with Kevin Garnett, retired in 2014 after both Hall of Famers went unsigned. As it happened, I had no trouble re-signing LeBron for seven more years, suggesting that he’d indeed retire a Cavalier. Of course, with no cap space and middle-of-the-pack draft picks, I was relying on LeBron, Holton, and Sloan to gel as a Big Three if we wanted to have any success. 2015 was our best season of the simulation to date: 49-33, and the fourth seed. We won a rematch with Toronto, surprised the defending champion Bucks, and then swept the Celtics, advancing to the NBA Finals as the real Cavaliers had in 2015.

Coincidentally, the Golden State Warriors were the top seed in the West that year, but were bested by the Grizzlies in six games in the Conference Finals. We split the first two games, but then Memphis won the next three to take the title. It was tempting to play the games and influence the result – indeed, I kept a separate save file with the Cavs down 3-1 – but this exercise is about entrusting the results to the sim engine. It did sting to see Dajuan Wagner, who’d I’d failed to re-sign a few years back, pick up MVP honours and defeat his former team in the NBA Finals. I hoped that the 2015 campaign wouldn’t turn out to be a fluke, and that we’d be able to remain contenders.

Vince Carter, now with the Philadelphia 76ers, retired at the end of the 2015 season – his 17th in the league – finishing up with 26, 410 points. Mike Bibby, Steve Francis, and Stephon Marbury also retired in 2015, having stuck around longer than in reality. We finished slightly worse at 45-37 in 2016, and fell to the top-seeded Bulls in the second round following a tough seven game series. The Bulls then lost to the Phoenix Suns 4-1 in the NBA Finals, as Amar’e Stoudemire’s loyalty was at long last rewarded with a ring. He stuck around for a shot at defending the Suns’ crown, but Paul Pierce – still a Celtic after 18 seasons – finally called it a day at the end of the 2016 campaign.

Zero cap space and even lower picks than before as a result of our success left me with no option but to keep the core together and hope for the best. Victor Holton was our best-rated player, but LeBron remained consistent, averaging around 17 ppg, 7 rpg, and 4 apg. His Overall Rating had fluctuated over the years, but sat at 79 as he entered his 14th season. The 2017 campaign produced another record of 49-33, good for fourth in the East. We made it back to the Finals after five-game wins over the Bucks, Raptors, and Hawks, setting up a showdown with Sacramento. This time the sim engine was kind to us, as after losing Game 1, we prevailed in six to win it all!

Appropriately, LeBron led the way and was named Finals MVP, averaging 20.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 4.4 apg during the 2017 Playoffs. It was a longer road than in real life, but on the other hand, his loyalty to the Cavaliers eventually still paid off with the team’s first championship come the 2010s. With a ring and Finals MVP to his name, it remained to be seen if LeBron would retire when his contract ended in four years. For the moment, the focus was on getting back to the Finals to hopefully defend our title. Elsewhere, Tracy McGrady, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Mike Miller, Rashard Lewis, and Metta Sandiford-Artest – still Ron Artest here – all retired at the end of 2017.

In a shocking turn of events, we missed the 2018 Playoffs despite finishing 45-37! A win on the final day of the season would’ve put us ahead of the Knicks for the eighth seed, but it wasn’t to be. Instead, the Bulls returned to the Finals where they at long last captured their seventh championship, also gaining revenge on Phoenix in the process. They were led by Tyson Chandler, who’d blossomed into a multi-time MVP as a consistent 20-and-10 player. In the offseason, Yao Ming retired after 16 seasons, becoming the latest star to end his career with the Wizards. Joe Johnson and Kendrick Perkins also retired; the latter presumably to be a terrible analyst in this reality, too.

Thanks to a few decently-rated free agents slipping through the cracks and remaining available for me to sign to one-year rental deals, we re-loaded for 2019 and finished 53-29; the best record in the East, and tied with the Spurs for second best overall, with the Suns topping the league with a 59-23 record. LeBron was definitely in decline, but part of a strong starting five with big men Harvey Sloan and Kojo Morrison, dynamic wing scorer Victor Holton, and steady playmaker Tanner Haydorn. Unfortunately, we choked away a 3-2 lead to the Bulls in the first round, and Chicago went on to face Phoenix once again, with Amar’e and the Suns capturing another NBA championship.

Former Finals MVP Kwame Brown – yes, that is entertaining to write! – rode off into the sunset in 2019. He was joined by Gerald Wallace and Chris Kaman, as well as Gerald Lawson, our long-time stand-in for Anderson Varejao. Having peaked at 79 Overall, LeBron was now rated 66 heading into Year 17. My core was beginning to get long in the tooth in general, but with most of them under contract for at least two more seasons, I was prepared to keep them together rather than blow everything up. However, with age clearly taking its toll, we struggled to another 39-43 season and missed the Playoffs. LeBron did put up 18.4 ppg though, his second-highest average.

In a repeat of the 2003 NBA Finals, the Spurs defeated the New Jersey Nets; new generation of players, same result! As for LeBron, I was expecting that he’d retire after the 2021 season. By that point, he’d dropped to 60 Overall, and had just one year left on his contract. Of course, I hoped that I’d be able to re-sign him, and at least get him to 20 seasons. We got extremely lucky in the 2020 Draft Lottery, winning the top pick with the third-worst odds. I selected Doug Knight, a 6’10” forward that’d likely eventually replace LeBron, and potentially play alongside him in the meantime. I made the decision to keep starting LeBron, seeing as how he was still productive.

Knight proved to be a solid sixth man, while LeBron managed to put up his usual numbers despite his declining ratings. We also went 54-28, topping the league! Sadly we flamed out in the Conference Finals, losing to the Hornets who then lost to the Nuggets, with Melo collecting his second championship and Finals MVP. Arriving at the 2021 offseason, we’d reached the moment of truth. Would LeBron retire after his 18th season, or would I be able to extend his virtual career to match his longevity in real life? For that matter, would Melo and Bosh – the latter of whom was now a bench player in Toronto – join their fellow Class of 2003 alum and hang up their sneakers?

Nope; all three stuck around! However, Tyson Chandler did retire. The question now was would I be able to keep LeBron, and if so, for how long? As it happened, LeBron was open to a two-year contract, indicating that he’d retire in 2023; Dynasty mode was usually predictable in that regard. He was now 51 Overall, but I figured that I’d keep him in the starting lineup since his decline wasn’t really reflected in his numbers. I also re-signed Holton and Morrison even though they were likewise in the twilight of their careers. Again, I wanted to play the situation more like the Lakers and Celtics of the 80s, rather than declaring it to be The Last Dance before absolutely necessary.

Unsurprisingly, with an aging roster – six players in our core rotation had at least ten years experience in the league – we fell short of the previous season, going 32-50. The Blazers – completely comprised of fictional players by this point, including a brand new Rodney Rogers – won the 2022 title. Our own title window was rapidly closing, and LeBron was rated an insulting 40 Overall entering his 20th season. Nevertheless, NBA Live 2004’s Dynasty had correctly predicted that LeBron would retire at some point in the 2020s, and remain productive into his late 30s. His numbers wouldn’t be nearly as impressive, but then again, that had been the story of the whole simulation!

Melo retired in 2022 as he did in real life, albeit after spending his entire career in Denver. In addition to his two rings and two Finals MVP trophies, Melo retired with a total of 33,498 career points; enough to place him third all-time in this reality. I began the 2023 campaign expecting it to be a farewell tour for LeBron as he prepared to retire. In real life, this was the season where he’d broken Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring record. In this simulation, he entered 2023 with a career total of 25,067 points; certainly respectable, but again, well short of his actual numbers. While that record would obviously elude him, he still had a chance to go out with a title victory.

Sadly, it wasn’t to be. We narrowly missed the Playoffs with a 40-42 record, and had to watch as the Warriors finally won another NBA title, running over Washington in a gentleman’s sweep. Incredibly, LeBron didn’t retire, defying the usual predictability when signing or re-signing veteran free agents in NBA Live’s Dynasty modes! He was only interested in re-signing for one year however, suggesting that 2024 would be his last season. Rated a depressingly-low 28 Overall, it felt ridiculous keeping him in the starting lineup. Still, I figured I’d come this far, and that it’s all about the retirement tour! We finished 35-47 in Year 21 for LeBron, who averaged a career-low 10.6 ppg.

Once again we watched the Playoffs from home, with the Seattle Supersonics – no relocation to Oklahoma City in this reality – lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy after defeating the Pistons in six games. As I prepared to run through another offseason, I wondered if LeBron would have a change of heart and decide not to retire. Despite being rated 14 Overall, he was game for at least one more run! I wondered if he was intent on holding on until he hit zero Overall. In any event, I’d managed to pull virtual LeBron through to 2025 and his 22nd NBA season. Extending his retirement tour was undoubtedly sabotaging the team’s present and future, but I wasn’t about to bench him.

Following a 32-50 season in which he hit another career low with 7.6 ppg – and the Lakers defeated the New York Knicks in seven games to win another title – LeBron decided to…not retire! However, Tanner Haydorn and Kojo Morrison did, having played 17 and 19 seasons for the Cavaliers respectively. LeBron meanwhile was now 1 Overall; something you’d never see in a basketball video game today! As silly as it was to start him ahead of a high-rated lottery pick – or anyone for that matter – I had a feeling that getting minutes was the only thing keeping him in the league. And so, the LeBron James retirement tour was renewed for another season, as it may be in reality.

Our young talent kept us on the fringe of the postseason, but once again, we watched other teams contend for the title after finishing 35-47. Even with his comically low ratings, LeBron contributed 5.6 ppg, though not a lot else. The Lakers made it back to the Finals where they faced the 76ers, who prevailed in seven games. On a side note, the Coach of the Year was Gregg Popovich. NBA Live 2004’s Dynasty mode doesn’t feature any coaching changes so it wasn’t a surprise that he was still on the sidelines for the Spurs, but that does make his long virtual tenure accidentally accurate. It was bittersweet to see of course, given that Pop recently stepped down due to his health.

Finally, after 23 seasons, LeBron retired in 2026. I was also dismissed as the Cavs’ GM, so I had to re-load the save, turn off the GM evaluation option, and sim through the season again so that I could watch the cutscene of him leaving the locker room to capture a screenshot! Naturally, I also wanted a screenshot of his jersey – which was automatically retired – hanging in the Hall of Fame. Although I did save a copy of the Dynasty post-LeBron, I was basically finished at that point. Harvey Sloan and Victor Holton are still around and nearing the end of their careers, so it’ll be interesting to see when they hang it up. For now though, I just wanted to see when LeBron would retire.

Obviously, considering how much he declined, he probably would’ve faded out of the league sooner if I hadn’t kept re-signing him. Because low-rated players are routinely pruned from the Free Agents to keep the size of the database manageable, former stars will sometimes disappear without fanfare if they’re removed before they can officially retire. Actively keeping LeBron in the league ensured that I’d see him retire, though I was definitely surprised to see him continue to sign those one-year deals to extend his career. Once again, when older player start refusing to sign or re-sign for more than a year or two, it’s usually a reliable indicator that their retirement looms on the horizon.

While my intervention was a vital factor, it’s cool that a simulation through NBA Live 2004’s Dynasty mode predicted that LeBron would still be active as of 2025, as well as the possibility that he’ll finally retire in 2026. Even though the year didn’t quite line up, it was fun that he won a title with the Cavaliers in the 2010s. Of course, he didn’t seek to take his talents elsewhere in this simulation, and didn’t display the brilliance or achieve the statistical milestones that he has in real life. It’d be interesting to run the simulation again with fixed ratings, but as it stands, he finished up with 28,085 points; over 10,000 less than the real LeBron, but not too bad given how underrated he was!

He’s not the only one, of course. The transition to using the 0-99 scale for ratings in-game as well as in the database wasn’t as smooth as it could’ve been. The ratings for so many players weren’t suitably updated to reflect that the internal 0-99 scale was no longer being converted to a range of 50-99. Players also declined harshly, and due to a design flaw – albeit one that can be corrected with some DBF editing – players will actually see their ratings atrophy if less than 25% training time is assigned to a certain area. NBA Live 2004 is a great game overall, and the revamped Dynasty mode added some awesome features, but there were teething problems that NBA Live 2005 fixed.

When LeBron James was drafted #1 overall out of high school in 2003, naturally there were a ton of predictions about his future. Dig through the archives right here in our Forum, and you’ll see some people really underestimate him, while others were proven right in their optimism. Of course, like so many greats, LeBron has arguably exceeded the loftiest expectations for his career. With that in mind, the developers of basketball video games are hazarding their guesses, the same as the rest of us. Even without the issues with NBA Live 2004’s ratings and progression system, the chances of it accurately predicting his or anyone’s entire career would be extraordinarily slim.

I’ve come to refer to basketball video games as interactive almanacs, for the way they capture moments in NBA history. However, not only do they provide a snapshot of the league at a specific point in time, but also of the uncertainty of history yet to be written. It’s easy to judge old predictions with the benefit of hindsight, but I think it’s interesting to look back at the wonder, hope, and scepticism, and consider why people felt that way. If nothing else, it’s cool that with no concrete knowledge of the future, NBA Live 2004 is capable of simulating a scenario where LeBron James doesn’t retire until the 2020s; even if it isn’t the most picture-perfect projection across the board.