Wayback Wednesday: What If…Michael Jordan Didn’t Retire in 1993?

This is Wayback Wednesday, your midweek blast from the past! From retrospectives of basketball games and their interesting features, to republished articles and looking at NBA history through the lens of the virtual hardwood, Wednesdays at the NLSC are for going back in time. This week, I’m pondering another historical What If; that being, what if Michael Jordan didn’t retire in 1993?

Yesterday marks thirty years since Michael Jordan announced his return to the NBA following his retirement to play baseball in 1993. If you know your NBA history, you’re well aware of what happened next. After falling to the Orlando Magic in the second round, the Chicago Bulls bolstered their roster with Dennis Rodman, and His Airness led the team to a second threepeat before retiring for the second (but as it turned out, not final) time. Even with the interruption – even with the controversial Wizards stint – Michael Jordan had a tremendous career to put it mildly.

Of course, even with all of his accomplishments that still lead many pundits and fans alike to declare him the Greatest of All-Time – and I’m among them – MJ’s career does invite a couple of What Ifs. The most obvious one that would’ve changed the course of the mid 90s, and further added to his legacy, is if Michael Jordan didn’t retire in 1993. Now, as I acknowledged when I discussed the What If regarding Karl Malone becoming the all-time leading scorer, hypothetical scenarios don’t prove anything. They’re fun to consider though, so let’s take a look back…way back…

First of all, let’s address the elephant in the room: the rumour that MJ’s retirement in 1993 was in a covert suspension for gambling. It’s a rumour that’s repeated so often that it’s become “common knowledge”, though it’s worth noting that Ron Shelton’s 30 for 30 documentary – Jordan Rides the Bus – shot it down quite thoroughly, finding no hard evidence of any suspension. Of course, that hasn’t stopped far too many people from concluding “it makes sense, so it must be true”. Likewise, there’s no evidence that the murder of MJ’s father had any connection to him or his gambling, yet people still parrot that theory as well. Frankly, I find that speculation incredibly disrespectful.

With that being said, what we do know for sure is that after winning his third NBA championship, Michael Jordan – then just thirty years old – abruptly announced his retirement on October 6th, 1993, and began his foray into baseball in February 1994. When MJ hung up his Air Jordans that first time, he’d amassed 21,541 points in 667 games, for an average of 32.3 ppg. Had he not missed a bulk of his second season with a broken foot, he’d quite likely have another 2,000 or so points on top of that. For the sake of this What If scenario however, let’s assume that everything in Michael Jordan’s career up until 1993 played out exactly as it did, but he didn’t decide to retire.

Had His Airness played the entire 1994 and 1995 seasons, an average of around 31 ppg – a figure in between the 32.6 he averaged in 1993 and the 30.4 he put up in 1996 – would add another 5,000 points to his total. Assuming he then goes on to score the same 7,279 points he amassed from 1996 to 1998, he’d have a total of around 33,820. That would leave him 4,568 points short of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for what was then the all-time record for career points. An average of 27.9 ppg over the next two years would allow MJ to top Kareem. That’s not unthinkable given his 1998 average, but he’d have to play until 2001 since a lockout shortened the 1999 season to 50 games.

Obviously, the other What If regarding Michael Jordan and his decision to retire in 1993 is the prospect of winning more championships. A possible fourth ring in a row in 1994, maybe a fifth ring in 1995, and if we really want to get ambitious, potentially eight NBA Finals appearances and eight championships by the time he retires in 1998. Assuming that the Chicago Bulls’ brass doesn’t chase Phil Jackson out of town and MJ sticks around to compete and vie for Kareem’s record, maybe the team manages a few more runs and perhaps one more ring. The all-time scoring record, eight titles or even more, and maybe the all-time steals crown as well? What an unbeatable NBA resume!

Jordan probably doesn’t play for the Wizards if he never becomes a part-owner of the team, but if he were to keep playing through to 2003, he’d pad those career stats even more. Even if he still retired in 1998, amassing around 34,000 career points in just 14 seasons, possibly winning four championships in a row and maybe as many as eight – not to mention additional MVP trophies and other honours – would make an even more compelling case in the eternal GOAT debate. Again, a What If scenario proves nothing because that isn’t how it all went down, but hypothetically, these are the stats and achievements that Michael Jordan could’ve feasibly had if he didn’t retire in 1993.

Mind you, there’s a difference between “feasibly” and “realistically”, even in a What If scenario. There are many factors that would increase or decrease the likelihood that Michael Jordan reaches those marks if he opts not to retire in 1993. And here’s the part that may shock you, knowing what a huge Michael Jordan fan I am, and how I continue to champion him as my pick for the Greatest of All-Time: I’m not certain that the best case scenario would’ve actually come to pass! I wouldn’t rule it out of course, but I’ll freely admit that even if Michael Jordan didn’t retire in 1993 and kept playing all the way through to 1998, there’s no guarantee that he achieves all of that.

Well, he likely scores that many points. If MJ had played all the way through to 1998 without his sojourn to the baseball diamond, remaining healthy and playing in every game as he did after he returned, he ends up with around 34,000 points. If he played until 2001 in order to chase the record and played 50, 82, and 82 games over the next three seasons, he’d only need to average 20.5 ppg to best Kareem’s total of 38,387. He’d probably average more than that – somewhere in the range of 26-29 ppg – which could potentially push him over the 40,000 mark in just 17 seasons. Even just topping 38,387 points in less than 20 seasons would stand as an incredible accomplishment.

However, when it comes to winning eight championships, and possibly more if MJ was to play through to 2001 in pursuit of the scoring record, I’m not sure that’s a lock in this What If scenario. Again, I think it’s possible. The Bulls still had their core in 1994, and while age was creeping up on them come 1998, the right moves might’ve given them enough juice for one more run thereafter. Nevertheless, it’s also possible that the Houston Rockets took at least one title from the Bulls in this scenario. They often seemed to have Chicago’s number during that first threepeat, and had they met in the Finals, they might have well triumphed. Kenny Smith certainly believes that!

As much as I’d like to point out that MJ never came up short in the Finals and that it would be unwise to bet against him, The Jet isn’t completely out of his mind to pick his team in that hypothetical matchup. Even if the Bulls triumphed in 1994, the loss of Horace Grant would’ve left them weak in the frontcourt for the 1995 rematch, to say nothing of a potential battle with a rising Orlando Magic squad. I do like their chances of winning in 1994 and 1995 more than continuing their run after 1998, but I honestly can’t say that I’m confident the two threepeats would turn into eight titles or more. Not that I can prove a What If scenario either way, but I concede it wouldn’t be a sure bet.

Even if they were to still acquire Dennis Rodman, there could be a loss in the interim, or perhaps the Knicks manage to topple them despite their best efforts. If MJ doesn’t retire and Pip isn’t thrust into the starring role for 18 months, perhaps they don’t gain the perspectives that allowed them to retain their chemistry for another three titles. Does Jerry Krause try and succeed in trading Pip, or even MJ? Might MJ go to New York in 1996, seeking a fresh challenge? Does a freak injury occur? Do they win in 1994 and perhaps 1995, but then fall off afterwards? Again, there are so many other questions and factors to consider here, to just hand MJ more rings as if it’s a given.

Still, if MJ were to end up with five, six, maybe seven rings, a couple more Finals appearances on top of that, the all-time scoring record or the second place in far fewer games, another MVP or two, more All-NBA selections, and even more dominance in the decade, would a Finals loss hurt his legacy? Going six-for-six in the Finals puts MJ in rare air with a unique distinction in the pantheon of all-time greats, but winning six out of eight or seven out of nine would hardly be a huge step down from going undefeated (and certainly not inferior to winning four out of ten!). If nothing else, without the MLB detour, those scurrilous suspension rumours definitely don’t exist!

In short, while I’m not 100% confident that we would’ve seen the best case scenario come to pass, I expect that Michael Jordan absolutely would’ve padded his resume in a significant way had he not decided to retire in 1993. Changing the subject to video games, if MJ had been in the NBA in 1994 and 1995, what would it have meant for the virtual hardwood? He infamously withdrew from the agreement that the Players Association made with the NBA regarding video game licensing, retaining control of his likeness. Of course, he had a relationship with EA dating back to Jordan vs. Bird, and continued to appear in the NBA Playoffs series along with his own spinoff games.

To that point, Michael Jordan does appear in the Super Nintendo version of NBA Showdown, which featured final 1993 season rosters. If EA had been able to renew their agreement with him beyond 1994 – the year that Chaos in the Windy City was developed and released – then there’s a chance that he would’ve continued to appear as EA revamped their sim basketball series into NBA Live. No Roster Players, no other players starting in his stead! It’s entirely possible that MJ would’ve been in NBA Live long before his first appearance as a Legend in NBA Live 2000, or his return stint with the Washington Wizards in NBA Live 2002 and NBA Live 2003 for that matter.

Furthermore, it’s quite possible that he would’ve been exclusive to EA Sports titles, much as Shaquille O’Neal was in NBA Live 96 and 97. It’s also quite possible that his asking price would’ve been too much, but had MJ remained active, I’m assuming that EA would’ve been more proactive in renewing their agreement. Otherwise, perhaps Midway could’ve secured the rights to add him to NBA Jam, making that rare version featuring His Airness a widespread release. Perhaps like Charles Barkley and Shaq, he would’ve ended up back in a host of licensed NBA titles. Then again, maybe he’d be the lone holdout, a Roster Player until finally signing on as a Legend in retirement.

If Michael Jordan had been featured in NBA Live and other video games in the mid to late 90s, the early days of our modding community would’ve been quite different. I assume that in this scenario, Chuck still withdraws his likeness, and there are other players we’d need to add and mods we’d seek to make, so presumably our founders would have still developed tools and created our community. Still, adding Michael Jordan was such a huge part of NBA Live modding back in the 90s; an annual ritual for modders working on NBA Live 96, 97, and 98. It’s mind-boggling to imagine a timeline where putting MJ into the game wasn’t a Day 1 task for NBA Live modders!

At this point, it’s impossible not to ponder MJ’s What Ifs without sounding like a stubborn “old head”, grasping at the straws of hypothetical scenarios to champion my nostalgia and bash the modern NBA. I’ll admit that it’s tough to resist pushing back on some of the insulting narratives about the NBA of yesteryear, but that’s not my only motivation. Whether it’s video games or real basketball, our nostalgia should be able to stand up to scrutiny. While there are some incredible What Ifs surrounding MJ’s career, it’s only fair to acknowledge that it may not have played out that way given the chance. Even so, it was a legendary career, and he remains my choice as the GOAT.