Wayback Wednesday: What If…Shaq Stayed in Orlando?

This is Wayback Wednesday, your midweek blast from the past! From retrospectives of basketball games and their interesting features, to republished articles and looking at NBA history through the lens of the virtual hardwood, Wednesdays at the NLSC are for going back in time. This week, I’m pondering another historical NBA What If, specifically what if Shaq had stayed in Orlando in 1996?

Earlier this month, I reminisced about the 1996 offseason. It was always going to be nostalgic to me being the first offseason that I experienced after becoming a hardcore basketball fan, but on top of that, it turned out to be an extremely important one in NBA history. A number of notable names switched teams, either via free agency or blockbuster trade. Although they obviously hadn’t achieved legendary status as yet, the Draft Class of 1996 was nevertheless exciting and full of promise. And of course, Shaquille O’Neal joining the Los Angeles Lakers was the move of the offseason!

Needless to say, Shaq signing with LA not only drastically altered the future of the Lakers, but also the fortunes of the Orlando Magic. The move worked out for Shaq, though he has admitted to having some regrets about leaving Orlando in 1996. Now, hindsight is 20/20, and retired players have demonstrated that they don’t have any qualms about twisting stories to improve their image in the eyes of fans. Still, had Orlando handled the situation better, perhaps Shaq would’ve stuck around longer. It’s another interesting What If, so let’s take a look back…way back…

We’ll never know for sure just how likely it was that Shaq would actually remain in Orlando. Taking him at his word now though, it would at least seem to have been a possibility. Unfortunately for the Magic, a few factors were working against them, including their handling of the situation. Before we get into that however, it should be noted that under the collective bargaining agreement that was in effect in 1996, teams could freely outbid each other. There was no advantage of being able to re-sign your own players to bigger contracts than any other team could offer them. Indeed, Shaq signing with the Lakers was undoubtedly one of the moves that led to that condition.

After all, following some crafty cap moves, the Los Angeles Lakers were able to give Shaq a seven-year, $120 million contract, which edged out the Orlando Magic’s offer of $115 million. With that being said, it wasn’t just about dollars. The Orlando media hadn’t been particularly kind to O’Neal in the wake of the Magic being swept by the Houston Rockets in the 1995 NBA Finals, and the Chicago Bulls in the 1996 Eastern Conference Finals. They ran polls asking whether the team should dump head coach Brian Hill to appease Shaq, and whether he was worth the money he was reportedly being offered. The vote for both was overwhelmingly “No”, and Shaq felt slighted.

Given the increasingly tense relationship with Anfernee Hardaway and Brian Hill on top of a few extra millions, it’s quite likely that Shaq was leaving Orlando no matter what. Still, that was never going to help! The Magic may not have been responsible for the drama that the media was trying to stir up, but it seems fair to suggest there was some mismanagement there. However, let’s say that things go differently. The papers and pundits keep quiet, or perhaps team brass manages to smooth everything over. Whatever the case, Shaq re-signs with Orlando in 1996, and the Magic enter the 1997 campaign with a lineup that’s allowed them to contend the past couple of years.

Incidentally, Shaq wasn’t the only Orlando player who needed to get paid in 1996. That same offseason, Horace Grant re-signed on a five-year, $50 million deal. I’m guessing that Orlando would’ve still sought to retain Grant in the event that they re-signed Shaq, keeping their starting five intact. They’d probably make similar moves to shore up their roster, including trading for Felton Spencer; the main difference being that he’d be acquired as a solid backup to Shaq rather than an inadequate replacement! To that end, they might still end up flipping Spencer to the Golden State Warriors for Rony Seikaly, which would’ve given them a superb one-two punch in the middle.

In fact, before we imagine how Orlando would’ve fared if Shaq had stayed in 1996, let’s take a look at some of the other potential domino effects. That same offseason, the Lakers also made overtures to Reggie Miller, though the deal would be pulled if Shaq accepted his offer. Had Shaq stayed put, there’s a chance that Miller – who ended up playing 18 seasons for Indiana and undoubtedly became Mr. Pacer in the process – could’ve signed with the Lakers. He also received an offer from the Detroit Pistons – a fun coincidence given their later clashes – and negotiations with the Pacers lasted into training camp. If Shaq stays in Orlando, there’s a chance that Reggie leaves Indiana!

Had Reggie Miller left the Pacers, they would’ve likely bottomed out in 1997. That would’ve given them a shot at the top pick, which of course was Tim Duncan. The Pacers were actually a lottery team in 1997, but as they had fallen just short of the Playoffs, they didn’t have great odds. The Lakers likely still make the Playoffs with Reggie rather than Shaq, but I’d suggest that he’d have had a much bigger impact on the Pistons alongside Grant Hill. As it stands, the Pistons won 54 games that year, and could’ve really made some noise in the postseason. Also, if the Pacers bottom out, it’s questionable as to whether Larry Bird would’ve become their coach the next season.

These ripple effects are the most fascinating parts of NBA What Ifs, especially the further we look into the future. Kobe Bryant was seemingly destined to become an all-time great player anyway, but if the Lakers don’t pick up Shaq to be their star while he was still blossoming, does he stick around for 20 seasons? If the Lakers aren’t ruling the roost in the early 2000s, which team does instead? Arguably, the Magic – and we’ll get to that – but it all depends on the moves that are being made around the league. To that point, some moves that we saw definitely wouldn’t have happened, while league-altering moves we can’t even imagine certainly would have!

In the interest of keeping this What If fairly simple, let’s say that Shaq remaining in Orlando is the only major difference from reality. Reggie stays in Indiana, Dikembe Mutombo still signs with the Atlanta Hawks, the New York Knicks and Charlotte Hornets still swap Larry Johnson and Anthony Mason, and so on. How does that affect the 1997 season? Well, to state the obvious, the Magic remain legitimate title contenders with Shaq and Penny as their All-Star duo. Even after a slow start, the real Magic went 45-37, and took the Miami Heat to the limit in the first round. I have to imagine they’re at least a 50-win team with Shaq, with the potential to win 60 again.

With the Chicago Bulls following up their 72-10 season with a 69-13 campaign, the Magic are likely battling for second place, even with Shaq. Indeed, even if we were to assume that the Magic won all three of their regular season games against the Bulls in 1997, Chicago’s 66-16 record would still be best in the league. If nothing else though, with Shaq the Magic are likely finishing somewhere between second and sixth in the East, which means besting the Heat (61-21), Knicks (57-25), Hawks (56-26), Pistons (54-28), or Hornets (54-28). To avoid the Bulls until the Conference Finals, they’d need to finish second, third, or sixth, or indeed seventh as they actually did in 1997.

Mind you, they’d still be facing some tough competition on the way to the Conference Finals! It should also be noted that Shaq missed 31 games that season, though it was the result of freak injuries that may or may not have occurred had he remained with the Magic. Additionally, the push that the Magic made in the second half of the 1997 season also occurred as Shaq was sidelined for the Lakers. It’s entirely possible that even if Shaq had been similarly hobbled in Orlando, Penny could’ve held down the fort until his return helped them to a strong finish. Moreover, Shaq did miss 28 games for the 60-22 Magic in 1996. With him in 1997, they probably get at least 55 wins.

There’s no guarantee that the 1997 Orlando Magic with Shaquille O’Neal best any of the top teams in the East that year, but the real question is whether or not they get past the Chicago Bulls. This is a challenging hypothetical for me to ponder as a Bulls fan, as I’m not exactly an unbiased party here! However, considering how close Chicago came to achieving back-to-back 70-win seasons, and lost only four games on route to winning their second-straight championship, I’m not sure that any team was beating them that year. The Bulls had also fared well against the Magic in 1996, going 3-1 against them in the regular season before sweeping them in the Conference Finals.

Of course, Shaq didn’t play in two of those regular season games, though that does include the Magic’s lone victory over the Bulls that year. Furthermore, both Horace Grant and Nick Anderson were injured during the course of the Eastern Conference Finals, so the Bulls admittedly didn’t sweep a Shaq and Penny-led Magic team at full strength. Having said that, I’d suggest that the Bulls were clearly capable of beating the Magic – and indeed anyone – in a seven-game series that season. It certainly may not have been a sweep, though. Therefore, while I’d still pick Chicago to win in 1997, a healthy Orlando team with Shaq potentially takes the series to six or seven games.

What about The Last Dance? Again, I’ll say that the Bulls still get their storybook ending, though it may well have been the Magic that give them their biggest scare before their NBA Finals rematch with the Utah Jazz. In fact, this is where we have to go back to those potential ripple effects of Shaq staying in Orlando. If Reggie Miller signs with Detroit or Los Angeles, then I don’t see the Pacers being a factor in the 1998 Playoffs! However, the Magic may not have been the biggest threat to the Bulls, either. If Penny still suffers a knee injury and is done for the season, Shaq alone might have carried the Magic to the Playoffs, but they’re probably not serious contenders.

That brings us to the end of the Bulls Dynasty, and the lockout season of 1999. If Shaq had stayed in Orlando and outlasted Chicago’s second threepeat, the Magic are likely as much in the mix as anyone else. First of all, Penny returned and played all 50 games in the lockout-shortened season. He wasn’t the same player he had been, but he wasn’t quite cooked, either. Second, the lockout gave Shaq extra time to heal from the abdominal strain that had plagued him throughout the 1998 season, though he still put in work to stay in shape. With Chuck Daly at the helm and a healthy roster that had been together for years, Shaq and the Orlando Magic may have won it all in 1999!

From there, who knows? That young Orlando Magic squad with Shaquille O’Neal and Anfernee Hardaway had been dubbed the Team of the Future in the mid 90s. Michael Jordan’s comeback in 1995 obviously ended up getting in the way of that, though it potentially just pushed back the timeline of the Magic’s coronation as champions. A lot of great teams throughout history have had the misfortune of peaking during a dynasty, or an otherwise inopportune moment in time. Had Shaq stayed in Orlando with Penny and their core outlasted the Bulls’ Last Dance, they could’ve won a title or two. For that matter, if not for injuries, they may have even succeeded a bit sooner.

Then again, maybe injuries still take their toll, closing the window on a championship after their one good shot in 1995. There’s a very good chance that egos eventually get in the way, leading to trade demands and an “It’s him or me!” scenario akin to Shaq and Kobe’s split in LA. Even if they came to rule the East, the San Antonio Spurs were emerging in the West. That’s what makes What If scenarios so tough, but also so interesting to ponder. There are so many variables and viable outcomes to consider! Sure, keeping Shaq on the Magic in 1996 makes them a far better team on paper, but health, chemistry, and some tough competition means that there are no guarantees.

We can imagine some significant and fascinating changes to NBA history, though. Maybe the Magic do regroup and prove that they have the Bulls’ number in 1997, or 1998. Maybe they do stick together through the Bulls’ threepeat, and fill the power vacuum that’s left after they disband. Maybe they outlast MJ and the Bulls, but it’s still too late for them. If they do win in 1999 though, then perhaps Dominique Wilkins gets a ring playing alongside his brother! Backing up a bit, if the Lakers miss out on Shaq in 1996, then perhaps Reggie Miller isn’t a Pacer for life. And, if the Lakers don’t dominate the early 2000s, is there parity, or a San Antonio Spurs dynasty?

If it’s the latter, does David Robinson have more rings than Shaq? Does Shaq ever win one? If he doesn’t, there goes a big chunk of his banter with Charles Barkley on Inside the NBA! Does Kobe Bryant ever end up in a situation where he can win five rings and establish the same kind of legacy? Does Phil Jackson ever coach again after the end of the Bulls dynasty, not having that scenario to walk into? Does Larry Bird ever coach at all if the Pacers are a basement team come 1997? Assuming that Michael Jordan still makes a comeback in 2001, what kind of NBA would he be returning to? And hey, since he’s arriving in 2003, what would it mean for LeBron James’ legacy?!?

As with the other What Ifs that I’ve pondered, there’s no way to prove anything here. The only thing that’s certain is that with all of the ripple effects, thirty years of NBA history and so many discussions of player rankings and legacies would be extremely different! It underscores the far-reaching impact of Shaq leaving Orlando in 1996. No, it didn’t yield championships right away, but it unquestionably changed the course of Shaq’s career, and the entire NBA landscape for years to come. And so, while Shaq may have some regrets about leaving Orlando, if he’d chosen to stay, then I believe that’s what he’d regret now. Certainly, his decision would be criticised either way.